Seniors Versus Juniors. A Snapshot

In domestic racing you expect a country’s top juniors to dominate the local age group seniors if they are to be ready to race internationally. The truth is that if a junior is not winning locally and well clear in the swim and run, bike times can be misleading due to equipment and overall strength, then they are going to struggle to race in Junior European Cup events. They probably won't make a bike pack.

The racing in Austria over the weekend also showed the jump in speed between junior and senior and we got to see athletes from the same training group racing, Different events but same course and similar conditions.

I don't have an inside track on the swim times, or threshold run paces and am not currently coaching any of the athletes in University of Limerick but I would guess that the average viewer, if they were to watch a training session, would not see much between Jonathan Oakey, Senan McDonnell or Mathys Bocquet or indeed others. And I would not be surprised if the juniors might be really close to or even beat Oakey in a head to head local race. 

The last 2 National events, Fastnet Triathlon and Tribesman Triathlon have been won by juniors in McDonnell and Bocquet respectively while we have not seen Oakey on the national circuit this year yet.

Oakey really struggled on the run in Austria and came home in 32nd on the official results. It is fair to say that this has been a bit of a pattern this year, good swim, sometimes very good, very comfortable bike, and what seems like a slow run. But how slow is it?

Lets put a little perspective on his performance in Austria.

The junior race was won in 58 minutes.  The senior race 3 minutes faster.

Both Oakey in the senior race and McDonnell in the junior were 2nd fastest swimmers in their races. Oakey with an 8.44 and McDonnell with 9.05, we should be aware this is a primarily downstream swim and current may have been slightly different. 

The bike and the run are where the real damage is done. The winner of the senior race, Paul Georgenthum, rode 28.39 while the junior winner, Moritz Hagel rode 30.14. The run times were 14.24 versus 15.14. 

When we look at the Irish athletes, particularly their run times, it is important to remember just how much extra power is being put out by the seniors and the energy cost of the bike prior to their runs. Oakey’s ride was 2 minutes quicker than McDonnell and he then went on to run 15.57 versus a 16.51 for McDonnell. When the MytriRankings are released later in the week there will be a fairly large difference in the respective scores.

Of course all of the above is to a large extent stating the obvious. Oakey has more experience, more training years in the bank and will be physically stronger and able to cope with higher demands, especially the high cost of the bike. The Irish juniors are coming through well, building year on year and doing what they should do domestically, beating the senior age group athletes. 

What the differences would be in a supersprint, or a relay leg perhaps, would be conjecture but you would have to assume the bike leg would likely be harder again, particularly with World Series level athletes taking turns at the front. What would respective run splits look like under those circumstances we may find out later this year.

We also are not accounting for exam or work schedules so not everything is like for like but it is nice to get a snapshot of where some of the internationals are. And snapshot it is. Only those working with the athletes every day will be seeing the full picture and have any indication of what that may look like in 6 weeks, 6 months or 6 years.

We will have an interesting few years ahead to see who might come through with a run for LA and who might continue in the sport long enough to contend for 2032. 

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